Sales of vegetable dehydrators at Bud Banis’s discount department store in St. Louis over the past year

QUESTION:

Sales of vegetable dehydrators at Bud Banis’s discount department store in St. Louis over the past year are shown below. Management prepared a forecast using a combination of exponential smoothing and its collective judgment for the 4 months (March, April, May, and June of 2010):

(a) Compute MAD and MAPE for management’s technique?

(b) Do management’s results outperform (i.e., have smaller MAD and MAPE than) a naive forecast?

(c) Which forecast do you recommend, based on lower forecast error?

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